Read this article:
Can Markets Predict Elections?
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Then check
Iowa Electronic Markets
As of August 31st, 2004:
President Bush - 54.4
Senator Kerry - 45.9
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After that, look at
Intrade
As of August 31st, 2004
President Bush - 58.0
Senator Kerry - 43.0
posted by Patrick at Tuesday, August 31, 2004