Read this article:
Can Markets Predict Elections?
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Then check
Iowa Electronic Markets
As of August 29th, 2004:
President Bush - 53.0
Senator Kerry - 47.6
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After that, look at
Intrade
As of August 29th, 2004
President Bush - 57.5
Senator Kerry - 43.0
posted by Patrick at Sunday, August 29, 2004