Read this article:
Can Markets Predict Elections?
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Then check
Iowa Electronic Markets
As of August 21st, 2004:
President Bush - 50.3
Senator Kerry - 49.7
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After that, look at
Intrade
As of August 21st, 2004
President Bush - 51.9
Senator Kerry - 48.3
posted by Patrick at Sunday, August 22, 2004