Read this article:
Can Markets Predict Elections?
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Then check
Iowa Electronic Markets
As of August 19th, 2004:
President Bush - 51.5
Senator Kerry - 49.5
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After that, look at
Intrade
As of August 13th, 2004
President Bush - 51.5
Senator Kerry - 48.1
posted by Patrick at Thursday, August 19, 2004