During colonial times in America, if you wanted to convince or inform people about some issue that you considered important, you went to the local printer and got some pamphlets printed. You then handed them out, read them to anybody that was interested, nailed them to the town bulletin board, or the nearest tree. The first amendment was specifically written to protect this type of activity and the writers or "pamphleteers".

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REPUBLICANS MAY LOSE

THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

IN THE 2006 ELECTIONS

The Pamphleteer is a big fan of prediction markets such as Intrade.

As of May 20, 2006 the following scenario is possible:

Probability of the Democrat Party gaining a majority in the House this November is:

54.8%

The Pamphleteer's Rule #1 of Politics:

If an incumbent doesn't lead by 5%, they're losers.


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posted by Patrick at Saturday, May 20, 2006