Read this article:
Can Markets Predict Elections?
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Then check
Iowa Electronic Markets
As of September 18th, 2004:
President Bush - 59.3
Senator Kerry - 41.0
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After that, look at
Intrade
As of September 18th, 2004
President Bush - 68.1
Senator Kerry - 34.0
posted by Patrick at Saturday, September 18, 2004