Read this article:
Can Markets Predict Elections?
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Then check
Iowa Electronic Markets
As of September 16th, 2004:
President Bush - 59.4
Senator Kerry - 41.0
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After that, look at
Intrade
As of September 12th, 2004
President Bush - 67.2
Senator Kerry - 33.0
posted by Patrick at Thursday, September 16, 2004