Read this article:
Can Markets Predict Elections?
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Then check
Iowa Electronic Markets
As of September 11th, 2004:
President Bush - 55.0
Senator Kerry - 45.1
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After that, look at
Intrade
As of September 11th, 2004
President Bush - 62.5
Senator Kerry - 38.5
posted by Patrick at Saturday, September 11, 2004