Read this article:
Can Markets Predict Elections?
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Then check
Iowa Electronic Markets
As of September 5th, 2004:
President Bush - 55.6
Senator Kerry - 44.8
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After that, look at
Intrade
As of September 5th, 2004
President Bush - 60.8
Senator Kerry - 40.0
posted by Patrick at Sunday, September 05, 2004