Read this article:
Can Markets Predict Elections?
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Then check
Iowa Electronic Markets
As of September 4th, 2004:
President Bush - 55.1
Senator Kerry - 44.5
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After that, look at
Intrade
As of September 4th, 2004
President Bush - 60.6
Senator Kerry - 40.0
posted by Patrick at Saturday, September 04, 2004